UFC 281 – Betting Odds and Predictions For Adesanya vs. Pereira – Nov 12
The UFC will head to Madison Square Garden in New York City to host its UFC 281 pay-per-view card on Nov 12. UFC 281 will be headlined by two title fights, with the Main Event featuring UFC middleweight champ Israel Adesanya taking on an old foe in Alex Pereira.
The co-main event will see UFC women’s strawweight champ Carla Esparza makes her first title defense against former champ Weili Zhang. This card also features several other exciting fights, including Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Chandler and veteran Frankie Edgar’s last fight in the UFC.
Our MMA experts look at the betting odds for the two championship fights and give you a detailed analysis to help you decide who to bet on!
UFC 281: Main Event – Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira
UFC middleweight champ Israel Adesanya will defend his title for the 6th time against Brazilian Alex Pereira. In the 5 title defenses so far, Adesanya has won 5 by decision and 1 with a stoppage. Adesanya’s last few title defenses have been a lacklustre affair, and UFC fans have criticized Adesanya for playing it safe and not giving fans an exciting fight.
This is one of the reasons why the UFC has pushed Alex Pereira ever since he got in the UFC, as Adesanya and Pereira have a lot of history. Pereira has beaten Adesanya twice in kickboxing, and one of them was a brutal knockout that left Adesanya flat on his back in the middle of the ring.
Pereira has had just 3 fights in the UFC so far, and only one of those fights was against a top 10 contender. That was his last fight against Sean Strickland, which he won by TKO in the very first round. Pereira goes into this title fight very confident, as he has defeated Adesanya twice before and can do so again in the Octagon.
The bookmakers have the champ as the betting favorite with odds of 1.57, while Pereira is the underdog with odds of 2.50. We know this will not be a boring fight as Pereira has brutal KO power and is looking to stop Adesanya and not let it go to the judges.
Adesanya, in the past, has had the edge over his opponents due to his height and superior striking skills. That edge gets nullified against Pereira as both fighters are of the same height (1.93m), with Adesanya having a slight edge in the reach department.
Our experts think Pereira has the edge over Adesanya in the striking department as he has bigger KO power. Still, Adesanya has the edge over Pereira in the wrestling department, not because he has better skills but because he has a little more experience.
Prediction: We back Pereira to defeat Adesanya and win by KO/TKO.
UFC 281: co-Main Event: Carla Esparza vs. Weili Zhang
Carla Esparza has a tough challenge ahead of her as she looks to defend his strawweight title for the first time against China’s Weili Zhang. The bookmakers have the challenger Zhang as a huge betting favorite with odds of 1.28 while the champ Esparza is the underdog with odds of 3.75.
Former strawweight champ Weili Zhang has had some spectacular fights in the last couple of years against Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Rose Namanjunas. She has a different challenge ahead of her when she faces Carla Esparza because, unlike Joanna and Rose, Carla is not a striker but a wrestler.
Zhang is the better fighter on the feet than Carla and should win if the fight remains standing. However, Carla will look to take Zhang down and test her wrestling skills. We need to see just how good Zhang’s take-down defense is and whether she can finish Esparza.
Prediction: We will back Esparza to win this fight due to her superior wrestling skills.
UFC 281: Other Exciting Fights
Bookmakers have Dustin Poirier as the betting favorite with odds of 1.61, while Michael Chandler is the underdog with odds of 2.37. Poirier should have the edge in the striking department, but we expect Chandler to use his wrestling and look to submit Poirier.
Frankie Edgar will have his final fight in the UFC when he takes on Chris Gutierrez. Edgar is the underdog with odds of 2.70, while Gutierrez is the favorite with odds of 1.50. We expect veteran Edgar to dig deep and finish his UFC fighting career with a win.
Watch for a light-heavyweight fight between former title challenger Dominic Reyes against Ryan Spann on the prelims. Reyes is the betting favorite with odds of 1.45, while Spann is the underdog with odds of 2.80. We expect Spann to win this fight because Reyes is coming back after a long layoff and is under pressure, as his last win was back in 2019.